Pitting the Gumbel and logistic growth models against one another to model COVID-19 spread [article]

Andriette Bekker, Keunyoung Yoo, Mohammad Arashi
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
In this paper, we investigate briefly the appropriateness of the widely used logistic growth curve modeling with focus on COVID-19 spread, from a data-driven perspective. Specifically, we suggest the Gumbel growth model for behaviour of COVID-19 cases in European countries in addition to the United States of America (US), for better detecting the growth and prediction. We provide a suitable fit and predict the growth of cases for some selected countries as illustration. Our contribution will
more » ... ontribution will stimulate the correct growth spread modeling for this pandemic outbreak.
doi:10.1101/2020.05.24.20111633 fatcat:4jfxbv7az5he5pnrk5kvdyffr4