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The equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias in CESM1 and its influence on ENSO forecasts
2022
Journal of Climate
The mean-state bias and the associated forecast errors of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated in a suite of two-year lead retrospective forecasts conducted with the Community Earth System Model, version 1 for 1954-2015. The equatorial Pacific cold tongue in the forecasts is too strong and extends excessively westward due to a combination of the model's inherent climatological bias, initialization imbalance, and errors in initial ocean data. The forecasts show a stronger
doi:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0470.1
fatcat:q3spk33nqjaujbvbeebqid57vm