A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2017; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is
We revisit the question whether sovereign ratings predict financial crises. In line with previous studies, we find that ratings do not predict currency crises and are instead downgraded expost. However, the likelihood of currency crisis and the implied probability of sovereign default are not closely linked in emerging markets post-1994. When debt crises are defined as sovereign distress -when spreads are higher than 1000 basis points or 10 percentage points -we find that access todoi:10.2139/ssrn.424440 fatcat:ju7utg2m2nhg7aprunqaavrucq