Noisy probability judgment, the conjunction fallacy, and rationality: Comment on Costello and Watts (2014)

Vincenzo Crupi, Katya Tentori
2016 Psychological review  
probability theory can account for key findings in human judgment research provided that random noise is embedded in the model. We concur with a number of Costello and Watts's remarks, but challenge the empirical adequacy of their model in one of their key illustrations (the conjunction fallacy) on the basis of recent experimental findings. We also discuss how our argument bears on heuristic and rational thinking.
doi:10.1037/a0039539 pmid:26709413 fatcat:m2w6y7llbnbmxofaln2xxugpna