The o b j e c t i v e o f t h e P a c i f i c Northwest Regional Assessment Program i s t o e s t i m a t e changes i n t h e Region's environmental, socioeconomic, and h e a l t h s t a t u s t h a t could r e s u l t from v a r i o u s energy development o r conservation scen a r i o s . B a t t e l l e , P a c i f i c Northwest L a b o r a t o r i e s , uses a dynamic s i m u l a t i o n model t o he1 p evaluate p e r t i n e n t issues i n t h e llorthwest (Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Oregon,

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... shington, and Wyoming). One o f t h e primary sectors o f t h i s model i s t h e demographic sector, which p r o v i d e s t h e needed demographic informat i o n t o o t h e r model sectors. S p e c i f i c a l l y , i t t r a c e s t h e e f f e c t s o f v a r i o u s energy development scenarios on employment and p o p u l a t i o n growth. The demographic s e c t o r simulates t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s among t h e population, b i r t h r a t e , death r a t e , n e t m i g r a t i o n r a t e , and jobs a v a i l a b l e i n t h e Region from 1960 t o 2020. The p o p u l a t i o n i s disaggregated so t h a t a g e -s p e c i f i c b i r t h and death r a t e s , a g e -s p e c i f i c p r o p e n s i t y t o migrate, and a g e -s p e c i f i c l a b o r f o r c e part i c i p a t i o n r a t e s can be used. The f o l l o w i n g f a c t o r s r e l a t i v e t o the trends i n t h e P a c i f i c Northwest a r e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n the demographic s e c t o r o f t h e ~iiodel: The p o p u l a t i o n i s expected t o increase due t o t h e h i g h percentage of people who w i l l e n t e r t h e ages o f h i g h e s t b i r t h r a t e s and a l s o because of increases i n employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s . I n response t o t h e increases i n en~ployment o p p o r t u n i t i e s t h e l a b o r supp l y w i l l increase i n t h e n e x t 20 years. Death r a t e s w i l l remain constant. The o u t p u t f o r t h e demographic s e c t o r of t h e model i s a r e p o r t generated every 5 years. I t i n c l u d e s t h e t h r e e components o f p o p u l a t i o n change: b i r t h s , deaths, and n e t m i g r a t i o n f o r t h e previous 5 years. I t a l s o notes t h e p e r c e n t change i n p o p u l a t i o n , b i r t h s and deaths per 1000 people, age d i s t r i b u t i o n , l a b o r f o r c e , unernploynient r a t e , and number o f households. The demographic s e c t o r i s s t i l l i n i t s developmental stage. F u r t h e r work may i n c l ude making b i r t h r a t e s and l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n f u n c t i o n s of regional unemployment. The number of household size classifications may be reduced from s i x t o two or three; and the demographic sector of the model should be disaggregated to include s t a t e subregions.