with the increasing time of water drive development in the Sazhong development zone, the oilfield has gradually entered the stage of high water cut stage or ultra-high water cut stage, and now it has entered the development stage of the high water cut period of the coexistence of the two drive. In order to extend the production life of the oilfield and plan the scale of production, based on the application of reservoir engineering method to calculate the natural decline rate and by grouping the

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... Sa Pu oil layer and the Gaotaizi oil reservoir in the Sazhong oilfield, reducing the yield base of each year and re prediction of water drive production decline rule in Sazhong development area, which is concluded that the average decline rate is 7.46%. At the same time, the characteristics of tertiary oil recovery are analyzed, and the production replacement equation is established through the production demand under different production decline conditions. Based on the law of decreasing water drive and the change rule of chemical flooding production, the average chemical drive reserves in 12th Five-Year and the annual largest chemical drive reserves as tertiary oil recovery reserves, and the output forecast index of the sash development zone can be obtained.