PREDICTIONS OF TOP 5 EUROPEAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE MATCHES

Vladimir MKRTCHYAN, Tigran GHLIJYAN
2022 ALTERNATIVE  
Beating the bookmakers is something that is nearly impossible task to achieve. However, in this paper we propose a model to predict winning odds of major European league matches. Particularly, the predictions were done on top 5 (England, Spain, Italy, France and Germany) football league matches. To create an accurate predictor, we used Machine Learning to build an Artificial Neural Networks. Using the predicted probabilities, we introduce betting strategies and analyze their profitability using
more » ... Monte Carlo simulations. To create more precise model, we set predictor variables such as ratings of the competing teams, head to head statistics and home advantage. We also estimate the predictability of top 5 European football competitions. The analysis is done based on historical data of matches and the closing odds on outcomes of matches. Finally, we deploy the results of the predictions by creating a web application which gives the predictions on the upcoming football matches of the top 5 European leagues.
doi:10.55528/18292828-2022.3-14 fatcat:mr4dgvthn5a7fleytxosp7kfqu