The Development of Subjective Bayesianism [chapter]

James M. Joyce
2011 Handbook of the History of Logic  
The Bayesian approach to inductive reasoning originated in two brilliant insights. In 1654 Blaise Pascal, while in the course of a correspondence with Fermat [1769], recognized that states of uncertainty can be quantified using probabilities and expectations. In the early 1760s Thomas Bayes [1763] first understood that learning can be represented probabilistically using what is now called Bayes's Theorem. These ideas serve as the basis for all Bayesian thought.
doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-52936-7.50012-4 fatcat:asge4i3znzhepiv6kuipcqdtdi