Comparing Theories of Selection Tasks: A Comment on Ragni, Kola, & Johnson-Laird (2018) [post]

David Kellen, Karl Christoph Klauer
2019 unpublished
Ragni, Kola, and Johnson-Laird (2018) reported a meta-analysis of 228 experiments using the Wason selection task. This data corpus was used to evaluate sixteen differenttheories on the basis of three predictions: 1) the occurrence of canonical selections, 2) dependencies in selections, and 3) the effect of counter-example salience. Ragni et al.argued that all three effects cull the number of candidate theories down to only two, which are subsequently compared in a model-selection analysis. The
more » ... resent comment argues against the diagnostic value attributed to some of these predictions. Moreover, we revisit Ragni et al.'s model-selection analysis and show that the model they propose often fails to account for the data. We also found that when their proposed model misfits the data, it does so in a systematic manner. Altogether, the problems discussedhere suggest that we are still far from a much-needed theoretical winnowing.
doi:10.31234/ fatcat:ffumzyw52ffevjyaclwx3fzrwq