Peer Review #3 of "Analysis and forecasts for trends of COVID-19 in Pakistan using Bayesian models (v0.2)" [peer_review]

2021 unpublished
Background. The COVID-19 is currently on full flow in Pakistan. Given the health facilities in the country, there are serious threats that upcoming moths can be very testing for all the stakeholders. Therefore, there is a need to analyze and forecast the trends of COVID-19 in Pakistan. Methods. We have analyzed and forecasted the patterns of this pandemic in the country, for next thirty days, using Bayesian structural time series models. The causal impacts of lifting lockdown have also been
more » ... stigated using intervention analysis under Bayesian structural time series models. The forecasting accuracy of the proposed models has been compared with frequently used autoregressive integrated moving average models. The validity of the proposed model has been investigated using similar datasets from neighboring countries including Iran and India. Results. We observed the improved forecasting accuracy of Bayesian structural time series models as compared to frequently used autoregressive integrated moving average models. As far as the forecasts are concerned, on August 10, 2020, the country is expected to have 333,308 positive cases with 95% prediction interval [275,034; 391,077].
doi:10.7287/peerj.11537v0.2/reviews/3 fatcat:zmuvvmi7cfhwdj5kryfv6yrrui