Developers' emotional stability in agile software development (ASD) teams is an important factor affecting the success of a project. Traditional Happiness Chart depends on people's self-report and is unable to produce predictive analysis to facilitate decision-making. In this paper, we proposed a Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) based method for analyzing ASD developers' emotional stability. We designed an easy-touse survey questionnaire which can help establish the values of the causal relationship

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... usal relationship weights to support personalization of the proposed FCM model. The FCM affective model produces two metrics for assessing a given user's emotional stability: 1) the stable state mood value, and 2) the number of iteration steps for the FCM model to reach equilibrium. The two metrics are evaluated through a real-world experiment involving 20 undergraduate students. The results show that they are strong explanation factors for a user's emotional stability with 99% confidence. A regression model based on the user study has also been presented in the paper to help researchers study the relationships between the two metrics and a person's emotional stability computationally in the future.