Seawater intrusion is a common groundwater pollution problem, which has a great impact on ecological environment and economic development. In this paper, a numerical simulation model of variable density groundwater was constructed to simulate and predict the future seawater intrusion in Longkou city, Shandong Province of China. The influence of the sensitive parameter uncertainty of the model on the simulation results was evaluated by using the Monte Carlo method. In order to reduce the

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... ional load from repeatedly calling the simulation model, the surrogate model was established by using the Support Vector Regression (SVR) method. The research results indicate that the SVR surrogate model can fit the input-output relationship of the simulation model with high accuracy. The seawater intrusion in the Longkou area will gradually aggravate at a slow rate, and the area of seawater intrusion is estimated to be 67.45 to 77.07 km2 after 30 years with 80% confidence.