Kırgızistan Dış Ticaret Dengesinin Belirleyicileri

Jusup PIRIMBAEV, Zamira OSKONBAEVA
2015 Sosyoekonomi  
This study aims to estimate using monthly data for the 2000-2013 period, the main determinants of the trade balance of Kyrgyzstan. For this purpose, in the framework of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model were used the following variables: the balance of trade (export/import), GDP, the real exchange rate and money supply (M2). The results of the econometric analysis show that the monetary and the elasticity models perform better. In other words, 1% increase in the real exchange rate
more » ... real exchange rate leads to an improvement in the trade balance by about 1.09%, and 1% decrease in the money supply leads to an improvement in the trade balance by about 0.51%. In the long run Marshall-Lerner condition is observed while in the short term is not found J-curve effect.
doi:10.17233/se.14363 fatcat:bmfklduaarh4lgse5ogcvsgnaq