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Dynamic Expectations Formation and U.S. Monetary Policy Regime Change
2020
Social Science Research Network
This essay studies the fundamental causes of the monetary policy regime switches within rational expectations models. I introduce a threshold-switching monetary policy process into the model that links the policy stance to the fundamental shocks by an autoregressive regime strength index. It creates an expectations feedback mechanism between private agents' policy forecasts and future policy regime outcomes. As demonstrated in a novel threshold-switching Fisherian model, well management of the
doi:10.2139/ssrn.3667667
fatcat:6je46t3ldre6leorbkwwqmauru