Alternative Liquid Fuels Simulation Model (AltSim) [report]

Ryan Williams, Arnold Barry Baker, Thomas E. Drennen
2009 unpublished
The Alternative Liquid Fuels Simulation Model (AltSim) is a high-level dynamic simulation model which calculates and compares the production and end use costs, greenhouse gas emissions, and energy balances of several alternative liquid transportation fuels. These fuels include: corn ethanol, cellulosic ethanol from various feedstocks (switchgrass, corn stover, forest residue, and farmed trees), biodiesel, and diesels derived from natural gas (gas to liquid, or GTL), coal (coal to liquid, or
more » ... l to liquid, or CTL), and coal with biomass (CBTL). AltSim allows for comprehensive sensitivity analyses on capital costs, operation and maintenance costs, renewable and fossil fuel feedstock costs, feedstock conversion ratio, financial assumptions, tax credits, CO 2 taxes, and plant capacity factor. This paper summarizes the structure and methodology of AltSim, presents results, and provides a detailed sensitivity analysis. The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 sets a goal for the increased use of biofuels in the U.S., ultimately reaching 36 billion gallons by 2022. AltSim's base case assumes EPA projected feedstock costs in 2022 (EPA, 2009). For the base case assumptions, AltSim estimates per gallon production costs for the five ethanol feedstocks (corn, switchgrass, corn stover, forest residue, and farmed trees) of $1.86, $2.32, $2.45, $1.52, and $1.91, respectively. The projected production cost of biodiesel is $1.81/gallon. The estimates for CTL without biomass range from $1.36 to $2.22. With biomass, the estimated costs increase, ranging from $2.19 per gallon for the CTL option with 8% biomass to $2.79 per gallon for the CTL option with 30% biomass and carbon capture and sequestration.
doi:10.2172/1004373 fatcat:fzvfqtr2rvdjzdmrpiawyqz6hi