Using Mathematics to Assess the Impact of Insecticide-based Interventions and Vaccination on Malaria Control

Akash Anickode
2020 SIAM Undergraduate Research Online  
Malaria, a deadly infectious disease caused by the Plasmodium parasite, remains a major public health challenge in many parts of the world. It causes over 200 million cases and 500,000 fatalities globally each year. There is now a global effort, spearheaded by the World Health Organization and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, to eradicate the disease by 2040. These efforts are primarily based on the large-scale use of insecticide based control measures against the adult female Anopheles
more » ... squito (the malaria vector in humans). This project is based on the use of a basic compartmental model for malaria transmission dynamics to assess various anti-malaria control strategies. The disease-free equilibrium of the model is shown to be locally-asymptotically stable when a certain threshold quantity is less than unity. Furthermore, this equilibrium is globally-asymptotically stable for the special case with no malaria mortality in the human population. Numerical simulations of the model show that the use of a vaccine as a sole anti-malaria strategy may not lead to the elimination of malaria in malaria-endemic setting. However, the study shows that combining vaccination with other vector management strategies (notably insecticide-based mosquito reduction strategies), can lead to such elimination. It is shown that the prospects for the global malaria eradication by 2040 are very promising if the extended vector management strategies (which entails the use of a vaccine together with the insecticide-based mosquito reduction strategies) is implemented at moderate level of effectiveness.
doi:10.1137/20s131494x fatcat:uiysiib2yra6fa576anfihjsru