Risk modeling at the pre-investment phase of nuclear powerplant construction on the international market

Petr Graboviy, Vitaly Berezka
2021 Real Estate Economics Management  
Involvement in the construction of nuclear power plants worldwide is a promising direction for developing the re-search and technological potential of engineering and general contracting companies in Russia. Nevertheless, Russian companies, involved in the construction of nuclear power plants (NPPs) abroad, need to adapt to foreign jurisdictions, their requirements and rules applied to the construction of hazardous industrial facilities, as well as unique social, economic and physical
more » ... ts. In this regard, international activities, performed by Russian companies, are associated with uncertainty and risks that require the study and systematization of risk factors and development of risk management models. The statistical data, covering the recent ten-year period, illustrates the level of uncertainty and problems arising in this area. Over 60 % of nuclear reactors worldwide are built with a delay in construction. The consequences of such delays boost project costs. Major international corporations, implementing nuclear power plant construction projects abroad, consider the insufficient pre-project study of project organization and management issues at the stage of entering into an EPC (M) contract to be the risk factors arising in the pre-investment phase. Risk management modeling is considered as the main element of the system designated for managing the organizational and economic reliability of the pre-investment phase of NPP construction in the international market. It includes: (a) structuring a multiparametric risk factor space based on four sources, including, on the part of the customer, the EPC (M) contractor, the contract and the external environment; (b) a pre-investment risk management model, applicable to NPP construction abroad, to be based on the overall project risk P(rt1); (c) a mathematical model for selecting a project implementation option based on the multicriterial optimization of the future-oriented project plan-schedule.
doi:10.22337/2073-8412-2021-1-59-69 fatcat:t37wtra66zgntmxokaj7akr2ge