A Review on Optimization Modeling of Energy Systems Planning and GHG Emission Mitigation under Uncertainty

Yong Zeng, Yanpeng Cai, Guohe Huang, Jing Dai
2011 Energies  
Energy is crucial in supporting people's daily lives and the continual quest for human development. Due to the associated complexities and uncertainties, decision makers and planners are facing increased pressure to respond more effectively to a number of energy-related issues and conflicts, as well as GHG emission mitigation within the multiple scales of energy management systems (EMSs). This quandary requires a focused effort to resolve a wide range of issues related to EMSs, as well as the
more » ... sociated economic and environmental implications. Effective systems analysis approaches under uncertainty to successfully address interactions, complexities, uncertainties, and changing conditions associated with EMSs is desired, which require a systematic investigation of the current studies on energy systems. Systems analysis and optimization modeling for low-carbon energy systems planning with the consideration of GHG emission reduction under uncertainty is thus comprehensively reviewed in this paper. A number of related methodologies and applications related to: (a) optimization modeling of GHG emission mitigation; (b) optimization modeling of energy systems planning under uncertainty; and (c) model-based decision support tools are examined. Perspectives of effective management schemes are investigated, demonstrating many demanding areas for enhanced research efforts, which include issues of data availability and reliability, concerns in OPEN ACCESS Energies 2011, 4 1625 uncertainty, necessity of post-modeling analysis, and usefulness of development of simulation techniques. Energy is important in supporting people's daily lives and the continual quest for human development [1] . In the past decades, the demand for various energy resources, in both sufficient quantities and satisfactory structures, has been increasing worldwide, along with population expansion, economic development and living standard improvement. At the same time, the depletion of conventional fossil fuels, the limitations of new energy resources/technologies, as well as public concerns over energy-induced environmental issues (particularly GHG emission) have greatly weakened society's capabilities for addressing potential risks and impacts associated with our energy supply [2] [3] [4] [5] . Although the "energy crisis" of the 1970s may not return soon, there is international consensus regarding the fact that energy resources can no longer be produced and consumed without addressing the issues of sustainability and a variety of associated problems. Thus, planners and decision makers are facing increased pressure to respond more effectively to a number of energy-related issues and conflicts, as well as GHG emission mitigation within multiple scales of energy management systems (EMSs). This quandary requires a focused effort to resolve a wide range of issues related to EMSs, as well as the associated economic and environmental implications. Consequently, effective planning of EMSs with the consideration of GHG emission mitigation has been a priority for energy-related and environmental professionals, as well as regulatory agencies [6, 7] . An EMS contains many processes such as energy exploration and exploitation, conversion and processing, production and consumption, importation and exportation, as well as the associated GHG emissions. These processes are undergoing many dramatic changes stemming from regulation implementation, regional/community development, and economic expansion, which would collectively result in significant effects on energy activities and the associated socio-economic and environmental implications [8] . In addition, the processes are generally complicated with a number of economic, technical, environmental, legislative and political factors. Such factors and their interactions are fraught with uncertainties that cannot be expressed as deterministic values or in a single format [9] [10] [11] . The uncertainties have multiple dimensions and layered features, and are thus complex by nature. Such dynamics and uncertainties may lead to a variety of complexities in EMSs decision-making activities. Moreover, a number of regional and global environmental issues are closely connected with energy activities, calling for synthetic management of energy resources, activities and the resulting environmental issues. The development of effective systems analysis approaches under uncertainty to successfully address the above interactions, complexities, uncertainties, and changing conditions is desired, which require a systematic investigation of the current studies on energy systems. Therefore, in this paper, a large number of systems analysis and optimization modeling for GHG emission mitigation and energy systems planning under uncertainty will be discussed in Section 2, advanced mathematical programming methods will be presented in Section 3, and decision supporting tools
doi:10.3390/en4101624 fatcat:gudrxjmmt5ggvpd5g7i5wov2ra