The Information Content of Regional Employment Data for Forecasting Aggregate Conditions

Ruben Hernandez-Murillo, Michael Owyang
2004 Social Science Research Network  
We consider whether disaggregated data enhances the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean-squared-error from a univariate aggregate model by 70 percent at a five-year horizon.
doi:10.2139/ssrn.761846 fatcat:3firjfprhrfifasmegbcv5uyde