An early assessment of the epidemiological effects of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in Germany [article]

Timo Mitze, Johannes Rode
2021 medRxiv   pre-print
Growing evidence on higher transmissibility of novel variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is raising alarm in many countries. We provide an early assessment of population-level effects from confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) on 7-day incidence rates in 401 German cities and regions. Estimates reveal that the 204 cities and regions with at least one confirmed VOC case by February 4, 2021 have, on average, a 15% higher 7-day incidence rate after VOC emergence compared to
more » ... ies and regions without confirmed cases. Effects are considerably larger (40% and more) for sub-sample estimates of regions with high VOC counts. Considering time heterogeneity in the estimations further shows that VOC effects on incidence rates grow over time.
doi:10.1101/2021.02.16.21251803 fatcat:oqo4ymiobzfdxntqcqumkqfeeu