Improving Uncertainty Calibration of Deep Neural Networks via Truth Discovery and Geometric Optimization [article]

Chunwei Ma, Ziyun Huang, Jiayi Xian, Mingchen Gao, Jinhui Xu
2022 arXiv   pre-print
Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), despite their tremendous success in recent years, could still cast doubts on their predictions due to the intrinsic uncertainty associated with their learning process. Ensemble techniques and post-hoc calibrations are two types of approaches that have individually shown promise in improving the uncertainty calibration of DNNs. However, the synergistic effect of the two types of methods has not been well explored. In this paper, we propose a truth discovery framework
more » ... to integrate ensemble-based and post-hoc calibration methods. Using the geometric variance of the ensemble candidates as a good indicator for sample uncertainty, we design an accuracy-preserving truth estimator with provably no accuracy drop. Furthermore, we show that post-hoc calibration can also be enhanced by truth discovery-regularized optimization. On large-scale datasets including CIFAR and ImageNet, our method shows consistent improvement against state-of-the-art calibration approaches on both histogram-based and kernel density-based evaluation metrics. Our codes are available at https://github.com/horsepurve/truly-uncertain.
arXiv:2106.14662v3 fatcat:gbhsagjksbbrjlokw2owhzmjki