Supplementary Material for: Predicting First-Year Mortality in Incident Dialysis Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease - The UREA5 Study [article]

H.-R. Chua, T. Lau, N. Luo, V. Ma, B.-W. Teo, S. Haroon, K.-L. Choy, Y.-C. Lim, W.-Q. Chng, L.-Z. Ong
2017 Figshare  
We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for first-year mortality (FYM) in incident dialysis patients with end-stage renal disease. We retrospectively examined patient comorbidities and biochemistry, prior to dialysis initiation, using a single-center, prospectively maintained database from 2005-2010, and analyzed these variables in relation to FYM. A total of 983 patients were studied. 22% had left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <45%. FYM was 17%, and independent predictors included
more » ... ate <500 or >600 μmol/l, LVEF <45% (higher odds ratio if <30%), Age >70 years, Arteriopathies (cerebrovascular and/or peripheral-vascular diseases), serum Albumin <30 g/l, and Alkaline phosphatase >80 U/l (p < 0.05, C-statistic 0.74), and these constitute the acronym UREA5. Using linear modeling, risk weightage/integer of 3 was assigned to LVEF <30%, 2 to age >70 years, and 1 to each remaining variable. Cumulative UREA5 scores of ≤1, 2, 3, 4, and ≥5 were associated with FYM of 6, 8, 22, 31, and 46%, respectively (p < 0.0001). Increasing UREA5 scores were strongly associated with stepwise worsening of FYM after dialysis initiation.
doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.5126038 fatcat:xtw7zmggujaqvbmmp6xh2su7bu