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This p a per examines sources of cyclical movements in output, ination and the term structure of i nterest rates. It employ s a n o vel identication approach which uses the sign of the cross correlation function in response to shocks to catalog orthogonal disturbances. We nd that demand shocks are the dominant source output, ination and term structure uctuations in six of the G-7 countries. Within the class of d e m and disturbances, nominal shocks are dominant, but their i m portance declineddoi:10.2139/ssrn.230835 fatcat:inq76qfnond7jiaohmhz5mdbhm