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Prediction of extreme events is a highly important and challenging problem in science, engineering, finance, and many other areas. The observed extreme events in these areas are often associated with complex nonlinear dynamics with intermittent instability. However, due to lack of resolution or incomplete knowledge of the dynamics of nature these instabilities are typically hidden. To describe nature with hidden instability, a stochastic parameterized model is used as the loworder reduceddoi:10.1137/130944977 fatcat:fs4x62nz6jfetdraibyfmd5lx4