The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a complex and complicated world

C. F. Kurtz, D. J. Snowden
2003 IBM Systems Journal  
In this paper, we challenge the universality of three basic assumptions prevalent in organizational decision support and strategy: assumptions of order, of rational choice, and of intent. We describe the Cynefin framework, a sense-making device we have developed to help people make sense of the complexities made visible by the relaxation of these assumptions. The Cynefin framework is derived from several years of action research into the use of narrative and complexity theory in organizational
more » ... nowledge exchange, decision-making, strategy, and policy-making. The framework is explained, its conceptual underpinnings are outlined, and its use in group sense-making and discourse is described. Finally, the consequences of relaxing the three basic assumptions, using the Cynefin framework as a mechanism, are considered. Over the past several years, our group has been conducting a program of disruptive action research using the methods of narrative and complexity theory to address critical business issues. 1 Action research has been defined as grounding theory in contextual exploration, emphasizing participation, and embracing change. We started work in the areas of knowledge management, cultural change and community dynamics, then expanded into product development, market creation and branding, and in recent years have been working increasingly in the area of national and organizational strategy. Some of this work has been directly funded by the U.S. government through DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Project Agency) as well as by other government agencies (in particular in Singapore) which are interested in new approaches to supporting policy-making. The central element of our approach is the Cynefin framework for sense-making. In this paper we describe the framework and its conceptual basis, and we detail some of its uses for sense-making to support decisionmaking in varied dynamical contexts. Conceptual approach. We begin by questioning the universality of three basic assumptions that pervade the practice and to a lesser degree the theory of decision-making and policy formulation in organizations. These are: The assumption of order: that there are underlying relationships between cause and effect in human interactions and markets, which are capable of discovery and empirical verification. In consequence, it is possible to produce prescriptive and predictive models and design interventions that allow us to achieve goals. This implies that an understanding of the causal links in past behavior allows us to define "best practice" for future behavior. It also implies that there must be a right or ideal way of doing things. The assumption of rational choice: that faced with a choice between one or more alternatives, human ac-
doi:10.1147/sj.423.0462 fatcat:x4wpmqh37bautlreotihyo4ida