Trend analysis of cardiovascular events associated with meteorological factors by Bayes analysis

Hiroshi Morimoto
2017 General Medicine Open  
Low temperature is associated with a large increase in the risk of unexpected sudden cardiac death. The effect of cold exposure on the incidence of ischemic heart disease (IHD) is well documented. However, the effect of other meteorological factors, such as relative humidity, has not yet been affirmed or declared. This study aims to assess the effects of the change in mean temperature and relative humidity on the onset of IHD by estimating the trend towards the risk of incidence. As humidity is
more » ... closely related to the inflammatory system, we further clarified the underlying mechanism that connects weather and disease from the perspective of the inflammatory network. Whereas most epidemiological studies employed the usual regression models, we used a naive Bayes classifier for the data of patients. By applying a naive Bayes classifier, we developed a new method to capture the trend of the change in meteorological factors leading to the onset of IHD. We identified general patterns of tendencies of weather factors (mean temperature and relative humidity) that led to the onset of IHD. These findings suggested the cytokine network, including various interleukins and especially interleukin-6 as a key cytokine, as a mechanism connecting weather and IHD. Avoiding the incidence of IHD has become an important issue of public health care. Our findings are expected to contribute to predicting and preventing the onset of IHD through daily weather observation.
doi:10.15761/gmo.1000106 fatcat:75adoih4dvfkbi6qp2m5ypis3e