Simulating future climate impacts on tropical fisheries: are contemporary spatial fishery management strategies sufficient?

Maia R. Kapur, Erik C. Franklin
2017 Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences  
9 We demonstrated a possible future wherein coral reefs shift to an algae-dominated state that 10 retains low coral cover and a functional biomass of herbivorous fishes that sustains a reef fish 11 fishery. We evaluate the effect of no-take MPAs and increased coastal nutrients under two IPCC 12 climate scenarios for years 2000-2100, which are implemented as coral bleaching events. Coral 13 mortality from bleaching events drove a lagged increase in herbivorous fish populations, via a 14 shift
more » ... , via a 14 shift from coral-dominated to algae-dominated habitats. Biomass and catch of piscivorous fish 15 declined significantly with the fishery shifting to the harvest of herbivorous fish. No-take MPAs 16 for 20% of reef areas represented a threshold that had a positive effect on herbivorous fishes but no 17 influence on the steep declines of corals and piscivorous fishes. Contemporary no-take MPAs 18 protect less than 1% of coral reef areas around the Hawaiian Islands; significant management 19 action would be required to approach the 20% area threshold. 20 21 22
doi:10.1139/cjfas-2016-0200 fatcat:jgfcvmhol5bpfp2nmifo2nmdcu