Estimating Equity Premia from CDS Spreads

Tobias Berg, Christoph Kaserer
2008 Social Science Research Network  
We propose a new approach to estimate the equity premium using CDS spreads and structural models of default. Our estimates yield equity premia of 6.50% for the U.S., 5.44% for Europe and 6.21% for Asia based on 5-year CDS spreads from 2003-2007. Due to some conservative assumptions these estimates are upper limits for the equity premium. Using 3-, 7-and 10-year CDS maturities yields similar results and oers an opportunity to estimate the term structure of risk premia. Although our estimator is
more » ... eveloped in a Merton framework it is robust with respect to model changes. In fact, we obtain similar results when extending the approach to a rst-passage-time framework, strategic default frameworks or a framework with unobservable asset values (Due/Lando (2001) ). KeywordsX equity premiumD redit risk premiumD redit riskD struturl models of defult JEL classication codesX qIQD qQI
doi:10.2139/ssrn.1251902 fatcat:aqnhxm5tq5cbjjo3qjhnn3txgu