The Accuracy Assessment of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Econometric Models for Romania

Mihaela Simionescu
2014 Procedia Economics and Finance  
The forecasts accuracy evaluation became a constant preoccupation of specialists in forecasting, because of the failure of predictions that caused the actual economic crisis. The objective of this research is to model and predict some economic variables corresponding too few macroeconomic blocks for Romanian economy. The forecast method is represented by econometric models. Moreover, the accuracy of these predictions is assessed, VARMA models generating more accurate short-run forecasts for
more » ... n forecasts for inflation, real GDP and interest rate in Romania (horizon: 2012-2013) compared to VAR and AR models. The econometric models proposed for unemployment rate, exchange rate and rate of monetary supply determined better forecasts than random walk.
doi:10.1016/s2212-5671(14)00143-9 fatcat:w3oyrylz7jgwziykgi3qnb7xuu