Прогнозирование курса рубля с использованием методов эконометрического анализа

Р.Ю. Миронов
This article is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in 2000-2020. The article considers the mechanism of exchange rate formation under the influence of the main structural and conjunctural factors. The author, using the methods of econometric analysis, constructed models of multiple regression, in which the dynamics of the quarterly nominal ruble exchange rate was the dependent variable. When comparing several models, the most suitable one was selected using
more » ... ia. On the basis of the data obtained, the factors most strongly influencing the ruble exchange rate were identified. The article uses methods of data systematization, logical conclusions, graphical, tabular and econometric methods, which allows the author to determine the interaction of various factors in the process of ruble exchange rate formation. The purpose of this work is to construct an economic model of the dynamics of the average quarterly nominal ruble exchange rate for 2000-2020.
doi:10.34755/irok.2022.30.40.018 fatcat:rd5d5kgzbzh53bsbd437ifnxgi