Quics D.6.7 - A Framework For The Application Of Uncertainty Analysis

Franz Tscheikner-Gratl, Mathieu Lepot, Antonio Moreno-Rodenas, Alma Schellart
2017 Zenodo  
This deliverable provides a framework for the application of uncertainty analysis in integrated urban water modelling. Its structure aims to provide a help for modellers by including the different uncertainties into a good modelling approach. Therefore, next to extensive literature for further information, a real world case study, which exemplary shows the approach, is included. It is an implementation of existing frameworks for a global assessment of modelling uncertainties and uncertainty
more » ... and uncertainty propagation analysis into a step-wise integrated urban water modelling approach, while expanding the scope of uncertainties incorporated. The idea is to see uncertainty analysis not as a standalone and separate process from the usual modelling workflow but as an integral part of it. The process to construct and apply an integrated model can be subdivided into seven steps until a final report and assessment can be made. The assembled model and the sub-models applied need to be revised and if necessary refined with every step, creating a feedback loop for the model. Contemporaneously with this process, a thorough continuous documentation of the information, data, changes and assumptions applied during the process and the uncertainties of the beforementioned should be included to enable third parties to comprehend what has been done, what information the in- and output data can provide and how reliable are those results for further decision making. The treatment of uncertainties is incorporated here not as one step included in model analysis or calibration, but as a continuous work accompanying the entire integrated modelling process.
doi:10.5281/zenodo.1240925 fatcat:fp7s7r7725fa5muazsmftobu6y