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Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics
2004
Social Science Research Network
We consider three sets of phenomena that feature prominently -and separately -in the financial economics literature: conditional mean dependence (or lack thereof) in asset returns, dependence (and hence forecastability) in asset return signs, and dependence (and hence forecastability) in asset return volatilities. We show that they are very much interrelated, and we explore the relationships in detail. Among other things, we show that: (a) Volatility dependence produces sign dependence, so long
doi:10.2139/ssrn.523582
fatcat:ydflo35zf5gw3exq2folgtm2zq