ANALYSIS OF PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE FOR HUNGARY USING ENSEMBLES SIMULATIONS

R Pongrácz
2011 Applied Ecology and Environmental Research  
Pongrácz et al.: Analysis of projected climate change for Hungary using ENSEMBLES simulations -387 -APPLIED ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 9(4): 387-398. Abstract. In order to estimate the future regional climate change for the Carpathian Basin located in Central/Eastern Europe, outputs from several RCMs (from the completed European project ENSEMBLES) are summarized and analyzed using the SRES A1B scenario. Composite maps of the projected annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation
more » ... nd precipitation changes are generated using RCM simulations (with 25 km spatial resolution) for the reference period 1961-1990, and the target periods 2021-2050, 2071-2100. Overall, the results suggest significant warming in Hungary. Projected seasonal warming is 1-3 °C, and 2-6 °C for 2021-2050, and 2071-2100, respectively. The largest temperature increase is likely to occur in summer. In case of precipitation, the annual sum is not likely to change significantly in the region. However, the summer precipitation is projected to decrease significantly during the 21st century, autumn and winter precipitation amounts are projected to increase.
doi:10.15666/aeer/0904_387398 fatcat:hsfbynkehnbjrmuctde56zpt3u