Metamorphosis of COVID-19 Pandemic [article]

Farhan Saif
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
We show phase-wise growth of COVID 19 pandemic and explain it by comparing real time data with Discrete Generalized Growth model and Discrete Generalized Richard Model. The comparison of COVID 19 is made for China, Italy, Japan and the USA. The mathematical techniques makes it possible to calculate the rate of exponential growth of active cases, estimates the size of the outbreak, and measures the deviation from the exponential growth indicating slowing down effect. The phase-wise pandemic
more » ... -wise pandemic evolution following the real time data of active cases defines the impact-point when the preventive steps, taken to eradicate the pandemic, becomes effective. The study is important to devise the measures to handle emerging threat of similar COVID-19 outbreaks in other countries, especially in the absence of a medicine.
doi:10.1101/2020.05.17.20073189 fatcat:l6pcgdi2szgylalhizep5wbihq