Award #N0001401WR20271 LONG TERM GOALS To study weather disturbances over the Southeast and East Asian monsoon region and its adjacent seas (e.g., tropical western Pacific, Indian Ocean, South China Sea, Yellow Sea, etc.) using Navy research and operational analysis and forecast models. The primary goal is to advance the understanding of the weather-producing systems in the region, in order to improve forecast capabilities. OBJECTIVES The objectives are: (1) to study the structure and the

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... c and thermodynamic properties of the disturbances in the vicinity of the Southeast and East Asian monsoon region that stretches from Indian Ocean to the tropical western Pacific, including the South China Sea and Yellow Sea, which are of particular interest to naval operations; and (2) to study the ability and sensitivity of Navy operational numerical models in analyzing and predicting these disturbances. The current Navy operational model, COAMPS, has not been tested systematically in the tropical, monsoon environment. The importance of cumulus convection, the tropical dynamics, and the topographic effects in East and Southeast Asia and the surrounding seas provide a quite different challenge for the simulation and forecasting capability of COAMPS as compared to other parts of the world. Therefore, an important objective is to study the characteristics of the model's performance and sensitivity in the East Asian monsoon region, in order to improve the model forecast skill and to find the optimal application methodology for Navy operations. APPROACH Observational studies/Data analysis: Use archived gridded data from global NWP outputs and satellite data to determine the structure of mesoscale and synoptic disturbances in various local regions for the different seasons. Use composite and principal component approaches to perform statistical analysis of the data. Dynamic modeling: Use dynamic models to study the interaction of western tropical Pacific monsoon circulation and synoptic tropical disturbances. Numerical modeling: Perform sensitivity and simulation studies of the observed monsoon disturbances with Navy's regional research and operational models. Cold start with NOGAPS fields and continued integration using update cycles. Carry out sensitivity studies with respect to physical