Probabilistic-deterministic modelling of fire spread

Vladimir Mozer, Vladimir Mozer, Peter Wilkinson, Miroslav Smolka, Piotr Tofilo
2014 European Journal of Environmental and Safety Sciences   unpublished
This paper deals with the topic of fire spread from the first item ignited onto items that are in its proximity. This potential is very important from the fire-growth point of view, since statistically only a certain proportion of fires spread beyond the first item ignited in compartment fire scenarios. A number of parameters that affect the potential of fire spread, such as fire load density, room geometry and fuel, size of compartment and ignition source are investigated. The fire load
more » ... and fuel geometry are selected such that they represent real-world occupancy examples. To evaluate the above parameters computer modelling is used, namely BRISK from BRANZ. Each of the variables is assigned interval boundaries and statistical distribution and a number of iterations are run, each varying one of the parameters randomly within the prescribed boundaries. The results are then analysed and probabilities of fire spread are derived for the specified configurations. The main outcomes of this work are the probabilities of fire spread beyond the first item ignited and to the entire compartment.