STM3 2011 base: Model parameters and overview
James Fox, Bhanu Patruni
STM3 2011 base Model parameters and overview RAND Europe is an independent, not-for-profit policy research organisation that aims to improve policy and decisionmaking in the public interest through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and
... l) without permission in writing from the sponsor. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org www.rand.org/randeurope For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1133 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., and Cambridge, UK R® is a registered trademark. iii Preface RAND Europe was commissioned by the Bureau of Transport Statistics (BTS) of Transport for NSW to modify the Sydney Strategic Transport Model (STM) to reflect a 2011 base year. This report presents a summary of the 2011-base models. The STM was designed by Hague Consulting Group (1997). In Stage 1 of model development (1999)(2000), Hague Consulting Group developed mode-destination and frequency models for commuting travel, as well as models of licence holding and car ownership. In addition a forecasting system was developed incorporating these components. In Stage 2 of model development (2001-2002) , RAND Europe, incorporating Hague Consulting Group, developed mode and destination and frequency models for the remaining home-based purposes, as well as for non-home-based business travel. Then, during 2003 and 2004, RAND Europe undertook a detailed validation of the performance of the Stage 1 and 2 models. Finally, Halcrow undertook Stage 3 of model development (2007), re-estimating the home-work mode-destination models, and at the same time developing models of access mode choice to train for home-work travel. By 2009, some model parameters dated back to 1999, raising concerns that the model may no longer reflect with sufficient accuracy the current behaviour of residents of Sydney. Furthermore, changes to the zone structure of the model occurred with the number of zones approximately trebling in number and the area of coverage increased to include Newcastle and Wollongong. Therefore, the BTS commissioned RAND Europe to re-estimate the STM models using more recent information on the travel behaviour of Sydney residents, and implement those updated models. The updated version of the model system is referred to as STM3. The work to modify STM3 to work with and reflect a 2011-base year was undertaken in the second half of 2014. The work involved updating the frequency, mode-destination and car-ownership models with more recent data so that they reflected a 2011 base year. This report summarises the 2011-base models, the demand that these models collectively predict for the 2011 base year, and an overview of the key differences between the mode-destination models developed for different travel purposes. This document is intended for a technical audience familiar with transport modelling terminology. RAND Europe is an independent not-for-profit policy research organisation that aims to improve policy and decision making in the public interest, through research and analysis. RAND Europe's clients include European governments, institutions, NGOs and firms with a need for rigorous, independent, multidisciplinary analysis. This report has been peer-reviewed in accordance with RAND's quality assurance standards.