Consumer Response to Cigarette Excise Tax Changes

Lesley Chiou, Erich Muehlegger
2014 National tax journal  
We use a rich dataset of weekly cigarette sales to examine how consumers adapt their behavior before and after excise tax increases -whether by reducing demand, stockpiling, traveling to low-tax jurisdictions, or substituting towards lower-cost brands. Consumer response varies substantially for different types of cigarettes. Stockpiling primarily occurs for discount cigarettes and is most pronounced at stores far from lower-tax jurisdictions. Border-crossing is greatest at stores close to
more » ... x jurisdictions and occurs primarily for cigarettes sold by the carton. Finally, we find modest short-run substitution towards lower-cost brands following a tax-increase, consistent with consumers smoothing the transition to higher cigarette taxes. These differences in consumer behavior lead to meaningful differences in tax incidence -pass-through is higher for discount cigarettes which have more inelastic demand. Pass-through is lower near low-tax borders, especially for cigarettes sold by the carton for which cross-border evasion is greatest.
doi:10.17310/ntj.2014.3.05 fatcat:zrmgobecuzcarmabgn2xnxy5xi