Consumer Response to Cigarette Excise Tax Changes

Lesley Chiou, Erich Muehlegger
<span title="">2014</span> <i title="National Tax Association"> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://fatcat.wiki/container/of3jgmoo4zdf3f6z3u5bavv4lq" style="color: black;">National tax journal</a> </i> &nbsp;
We use a rich dataset of weekly cigarette sales to examine how consumers adapt their behavior before and after excise tax increases -whether by reducing demand, stockpiling, traveling to low-tax jurisdictions, or substituting towards lower-cost brands. Consumer response varies substantially for different types of cigarettes. Stockpiling primarily occurs for discount cigarettes and is most pronounced at stores far from lower-tax jurisdictions. Border-crossing is greatest at stores close to
more &raquo; ... x jurisdictions and occurs primarily for cigarettes sold by the carton. Finally, we find modest short-run substitution towards lower-cost brands following a tax-increase, consistent with consumers smoothing the transition to higher cigarette taxes. These differences in consumer behavior lead to meaningful differences in tax incidence -pass-through is higher for discount cigarettes which have more inelastic demand. Pass-through is lower near low-tax borders, especially for cigarettes sold by the carton for which cross-border evasion is greatest.
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