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Calibrating Multimodel Forecast Ensembles with Exchangeable and Missing Members Using Bayesian Model Averaging
2010
Monthly Weather Review
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing technique that generates calibrated and sharp predictive probability density functions (PDFs) from forecast ensembles. It represents the predictive PDF as a weighted average of PDFs centered on the bias-corrected ensemble members, where the weights reflect the relative skill of the individual members over a training period. This work adapts the BMA approach to situations that arise frequently in practice; namely, when one or more of
doi:10.1175/2009mwr3046.1
fatcat:no7xb4wntjeqbkbezs4xgf7ryq