M. Tahir Kilavuz Authoritarianism has prevailed and the "democracy gap" persisted over the past century throughout the Arab Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Despite persistence of authoritarianism in the region, there is some variation in regime trajectories. The region has witnessed several authoritarian breakdowns over the last decades; yet, experiencing a breakdown does not always guarantee a democratic transition. Among handful democratic transition attempts in the region, only a single

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... country, Tunisia, has successfully completed its transition to democracy. Why are most of the MENA autocracies so durable? What are the causes of such variation in the regime trajectories in the MENA? Why has not democracy taken root in the MENA even when there are transition attempts? This dissertation seeks to understand regime persistence and change in the MENA comprehensively, in terms of both temporal and geographical coverage. Using fieldwork and experimental data and relying on qualitative and quantitative analysis, the study 3.3 How Do Institutional Predictors Shape Authoritarian Control and Powersharing? .