Estimating Bus Travel Time Using Survival Models

Amir Reza Mamdoohi, Amin Delfan Azari, Mehrdad Alomoradi, Faculty of Environment and Civil Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran, Institute for Management and Planning Studies (IMPS), Tehran, Iran., Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran.
2019 The Journal of Planning and Budgeting  
The prevailing model in the studies that estimate bus travel time is the linear regression which assumes the limit of the normal distribution for all observations. Besides, survival models can calculate that the probability of an event can change over time. Thus, examining event probabilities that change over time is ideal for risky basic models such as survival ones. Although these kinds of models are used less in the research of bus travel time, in this study Accelerated Failure Time (AFT)
more » ... vival models and linear regression models are compared in the form of two modeling approaches, link-based, and section-based. As for modeling the Automated Vehicle Location (AVL), data of 32 buses in line number 313 in Tehran (from Sepah Sq. to Enqelab Sq.) is used, including the information for one week for May, August, and November 2015. According to the results, the accuracy of survival models is better than the linear regression model in both modeling approaches. Furthermore, the performance of the linear regression model is unfavorable for both observations of short (less than 100 seconds) and long (more than 900 seconds) travel time. In addition, the particular lane that has been built in the opposite direction in this route reduces the bus travel time by an average of about 157/ percent. ‫را‬ ‫اتوبوس‬ ‫سفر‬ ‫زمان‬ ‫از‬ ‫رصد‬ ‫د‬ ۱۵/۷ ‫ه.‬ ‫شتابید‬ ‫شکست‬ ‫زمان‬ ‫بقا،‬ ‫ل‬ ‫مد‬ ‫بخش،‬ ‫کمان،‬ ‫اتوبوس،‬ ‫سفر‬ ‫زمان‬ ‫ها:‬ ‫واژه‬ ‫کليد‬ .R42, R41, R4 :JEL ‫ي‬ ‫بند‬ ‫طبقه‬ ‫وحی‬ ‫ممد‬ ‫اميررضا‬ ‫انشگاه‬ ‫د‬ ‫زیست،‬ ‫محیط‬ ‫و‬ ‫عمران‬ ‫سی‬ ‫مهند‬ ‫ه‬ ‫انشکد‬ ‫د‬ ‫انشیار،‬ ‫د‬ ‫مسئول).‬ ‫ه‬ ‫(نویسند‬ ‫رس‬ ‫مد‬ ‫تربیت‬ ‫آذری‬ ‫لفان‬ ‫د‬ ‫امين‬ ‫و‬ ‫آموزش‬ ‫عالی‬ ‫موسسه‬ ، ‫اقتصاد‬ ‫ارشد‬ ‫کارشناسی‬ ‫انشجوی‬ ‫د‬ ‫ریزی.‬ ‫برنامه‬ ‫و‬ ‫یریت‬ ‫مد‬ ‫پژوهش‬ ‫ی‬ ‫عليمراد‬ ‫اد‬ ‫مهرد‬ ‫ریزي.‬ ‫برنامه‬ ‫و‬ ‫یریت‬ ‫مد‬ ‫پژوهش‬ ‫و‬ ‫آموزش‬ ‫عالي‬ ‫موسسه‬ ‫مربی،‬ ‫پژوهشي‬ -‫علمي‬ ‫فصلنامه‬ 2251-9092 ‫(چاپي)‬ ‫شاپا‬ 3 ‫شماره‬ ‫چهارم‬ ‫و‬ ‫بيست‬ ‫سال‬ 111-132 ‫ص‬ ‫ص‬ ISC ‫ر‬ ‫د‬ ‫نمايه‬ 1398 ‫پاييز‬ ‫پژوهشی‬ ‫مقاله‬ ‫پژوهشی‬ ‫علمی-‬ ‫فصلنامه‬ ‫چهارم‬ ‫و‬ ‫بيست‬ ‫سال‬ 3 ‫شماره‬ 1398 ‫پاييز‬ 112 ‫مه‬ ‫مقد‬ ‫معمول،‬ ‫طور‬ ‫به‬ ‫هاست.‬ ‫سامانه‬ ‫این‬ ‫کاربران‬ ‫اد‬ ‫تعد‬ ‫افزایش‬ ‫های‬ ‫راه‬ ‫از‬ ‫یکی‬ ‫همگانی‬ ‫ونقل‬ ‫حمل‬ ‫عملکرد‬ ‫بهبود‬ ‫معیار‬ ‫را‬ ‫ن)،‬ ‫شد‬ ‫سوار‬ ‫برای‬ ‫کافی‬ ‫جای‬ ‫وجود‬ ‫و‬ ‫سفر‬ ‫زمان‬ ‫بینی‬ ‫(پیش‬ ‫اطمینان‬ ‫قابلیت‬ ‫همگانی‬ ‫ونقل‬ ‫حمل‬ ‫کاربران‬ ‫برای‬ .)Brownstone & Small, 2005
doi:10.29252/jpbud.24.3.111 fatcat:lvyvctmexfemrdlbrtm6lp6ysa