Estimating the travel time and the most likely path from Lagrangian drifters

Michael O'Malley, Adam M. Sykulski, Romuald Laso-Jadart, Mohammed-Amin Madoui
2021 Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology  
AbstractWe provide a novel methodology for computing the most likely path taken by drifters between arbitrary fixed locations in the ocean. We also provide an estimate of the travel time associated with this path. Lagrangian pathways and travel times are of practical value not just in understanding surface velocities, but also in modelling the transport of ocean-borne species such as planktonic organisms, and oating debris such as plastics. In particular, the estimated travel time can be used
more » ... compute an estimated Lagrangian distance, which is often more informative than Euclidean distance in understanding connectivity between locations. Our methodology is purely data-driven, and requires no simulations of drifter trajectories, in contrast to existing approaches. Our method scales globally and can simultaneously handle multiple locations in the ocean. Furthermore, we provide estimates of the error and uncertainty associated with both the most likely path and the associated travel time.
doi:10.1175/jtech-d-20-0134.1 fatcat:gppesenl4jcqznh7tque4gjyx4