Overview To support planning by the city of Austin and Travis County, we analyzed the Austin-Round Rock module of our US COVID-19 Pandemic Model to project the number of hospitalizations under different social distancing scenarios. Note that the results presented herein are based on multiple assumptions about the transmission rate and age-specific severity of COVID-19. There is still much we do not understand about the transmission dynamics of this virus, including the extent of asymptomatic

more »

... ection and transmission. These results do not represent the full range of uncertainty. Rather, they are meant to serve as plausible scenarios for gauging the likely impacts of social distancing measures in the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Area. We have updated our model inputs based on the daily number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the Austin-Round Rock MSA between March 13 and April 19, 2020. The data suggest that social distancing following the March 24th Stay Home-Work Safe order has resulted in a 94% reduction in COVID-19 transmission , with our uncertainty in this estimate ranging from 55% and 100%. The data also suggest that approximately 13.6% of symptomatic cases are detected (i.e., reported as confirmed cases). We are posting these results prior to peer review to provide intuition for both policy makers and the public regarding both the immediate threat of COVID-19 and the extent to which early social distancing measures are mitigating that threat. Our projections indicate that the Stay Home-Work Safe has delayed and possibly even prevented a COVID-19 healthcare crisis in the region.