Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics

Sandro Azaele, Amos Maritan, Enrico Bertuzzo, Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe, Andrea Rinaldo
2010 Physical Review E  
We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. Without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals
more » ... of ill individuals provides a mechanism for the decay of the epidemics occurring on the typical time scale of seasonality. The model is shown to provide a reasonably accurate description of the empirical data of the 2000/2001 cholera epidemic which took place in the Kwa Zulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with possibly notable epidemiological implications.
doi:10.1103/physreve.81.051901 pmid:20866255 fatcat:uxnuovmevjg7nghp6cwfwk5v74