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Intro: Computer network defense has models for attacks and incidents comprised of multiple attacks after the fact. However, we lack an evidence-based model the likelihood and intensity of attacks and incidents. Purpose: We propose a model of global capability advancement, the adversarial capability chain (ACC), to fit this need. The model enables cyber risk analysis to better understand the costs for an adversary to attack a system, which directly influences the cost to defend it. Method: Thedoi:10.1109/ecrime.2015.7120797 dblp:conf/ecrime/SpringKS15 fatcat:zghpmhyhsveu5dnzggk66jpvde