A review of existing models and methods to estimate employment effects of pollution control policies [report]

R.F. Darwin, R.J. Nesse
1988 unpublished
SUMMARY This working paper was prepared by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for the Office of Program Development within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of the Assistant Administrator for Air and Radiation. The purpose of this paper is to provide information about existing models and methods used to estimate coal mining employment impacts of pollution control policies. The EPA is currently assessing the consequences of various alternative policies to reduce air
more » ... reduce air pollution. One important potential consequence of these policies is that coal mining employment may decline or shift from low-sulfur to high-sulfur coal producing regions. The EPA requires models that can estimate the magnitude and cost of these employment changes at the local level. This paper contains descriptions and evaluations of three models and methods currently used to estimate the size and cost of coal mining employment changes. The first model reviewed is the Coal and Electric Utilities Model (CEUM), a well established, general purpose model that has been used by the EPA and other groups to simulate air pollution control policies. The second model reviewed is the Advanced Utility Simulation Model (AUSM), which was developed for the EPA specifically to analyze the impacts of air pollution control policies. Finally, the methodology used by Arthur D. Little, Inc. to estimate the costs of alternative air pollution control policies for the Consolidated Coal Company is discussed. These descriptions and evaluations are based on information obtained from published reports and from draft documentation of the models provided by the EPA. The major findings are listed below; 1. All three models and methods provide estimates of coal mining employment impacts. Only the ADL methodology, however, provides state-level estimates of employment impacts that would indirectly occur in those industries that provide goods and services to the coal mining industry (indirect effects). Similarly only the ADL study estimates the employment impacts that employment changes in both the coal mining and its supporting industries would induce in industries providing final goods and services to households (induced effects). ; i i v
doi:10.2172/5439297 fatcat:echw2r57jbf6vegovkhcmjna5e