We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and

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... ction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles. JEL codes: C11, C15, C53, E37.