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How external factors influence stock market: A model based SVM

Ying Chen, Chao Wang, Xun Liang
2010 Proceedings of 2010 IEEE International Conference on Service Operations and Logistics, and Informatics  

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The stock market is an important part of the economy of each country, the increase or decrease in the share prices indicates the boom or recession of economy cycle. This study examined these factors such as Inflation (I), Interest Rate (IR), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Exchange Rate (ER) and Oil Prices (OP) impact to Stock Market after Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). Simultaneously, this paper seeks to contribute further understanding about the impact of each factor
more » ... t to Vietnam stock market. The results, from analysis monthly data from 2007/2 to 2013/12, show that some factors have the positive effect to the securities market and some others have the negative effect. Using the ADF Unit Root test reveals that these variables used in this study are stationary. Analyzing of Co-integration test presents evidence about the long-run relationship between Vietnam stock index (VNI) and other variables. This study uses VECM to forecast the near future of VNI and VAR test to find the relationship between VNI and the factors.
doi:10.1109/soli.2010.5551557 fatcat:2cnla6j65jahxazjd5kebx4yke
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Ying Chen, Chao Wang, Xun Liang. "How external factors influence stock market: A model based SVM." Proceedings of 2010 IEEE International Conference on Service Operations and Logistics, and Informatics (2010)