Overview To support planning by the city of Austin and Travis County, we analyzed the Austin-Round Rock module of our US COVID-19 Pandemic Model to project the number of hospitalizations under different scenarios for relaxing social distancing measures following the March 24th Stay Home-Work Safe order. Note that the results presented herein are based on multiple assumptions about the transmission rate and age-specific severity of COVID-19. There is still much we do not understand about the

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... smission dynamics of this virus, including the extent of asymptomatic infection and transmission. These results do not represent the full range of uncertainty. Rather, they are meant to serve as plausible scenarios for gauging the likely impacts of social distancing measures in the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Area. We have updated our model inputs based on the daily number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the Austin-Round Rock MSA between March 13 and April 19, 2020. The data suggest that social distancing following the March 24th Stay Home-Work Safe order has resulted in a 94% reduction in COVID-19 transmission , with our uncertainty in this estimate ranging from 70% and 100%. The data also suggest that approximately 13.6% of symptomatic cases are detected (i.e., reported as confirmed cases). We are posting these results prior to peer review to provide intuition for both policy makers and the public regarding both the threat of COVID-19 and the extent to which social distancing measures can mitigate that threat. Our projections indicate that the Stay Home-Work Safe has likely prevented a COVID-19 healthcare crisis in the region during the first wave of the pandemic. When current measures are relaxed, we may see more COVID-19 transmission in the area leading to a second pandemic wave. Whether or not and how quickly COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations rise in the second wave will critically depend on the extent to which individuals and communities continue to take steps to reduce the risks of transmission.