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Robust predictors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity identified with causal effect networks
Weather and Climate Dynamics
Abstract. Atlantic hurricane activity varies substantially from year to year and so does the associated damage. Longer-term forecasting of hurricane risks is a key element to reduce damage and societal vulnerabilities by enabling targeted disaster preparedness and risk reduction measures. While the immediate synoptic drivers of tropical cyclone formation and intensification are increasingly well understood, precursors of hurricane activity on longer time horizons are still not well established.doi:10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020 fatcat:gf2dlx4wbzbyxgpey7d2m4rjyu